Navigating India's path to WTC final gets more challenging: Strategies for Rohit Sharma and Gautam Gambhir post Adelaide loss

Rohit Sharma's team has now dropped out of the top two positions, falling below defending champions Australia and strong contenders South Africa.

India now have just three Tests remaining in the 2023-25 WTC cycle. With their fourth Test defeat in two months, the road to their third successive WTC final has become all the more daunting for India, who previously reached the summit clash for the 2019-21 and 2021-23 cycles.

With the win in the Adelaide Test, Australia have gone back to the top spot in the WTC cycle with PCT rising from 57.69 to 60.71. However, the second-placed South Africa will leapfrog Australia if they defeat Sri Lanka in the second Test in Gqeberha.

What India needs to do now?

To qualify for the WTC final without depending on other results, India cannot afford another loss in the ongoing cycle. Rohit Sharma and Gautam Gambhir can now just afford a maximum of one draw. If the side wins two games and draws one match, then India will finish on a PCT of 60.52.

If India wins the remaining three Tests, the PCT will rise to 64.05, which will be enough for Rohit Sharma's side to progress to their third WTC final in a row.

What happens if India doesn't win 4-1?

If India doesn't win their remaining three Tests, then the side will need other results to go their way. Here are all the possible scenarios if India win 3-2, 3-1 or the Border-Gavaskar Trophy is drawn at 2-2.

If India win 3-2: If this is the case then India will finish with a total of 134 points and PCT of 58.77. Australia will not be able to breach this PCT because they have just two more Tests against Sri Lanka. On the other hand, South Africa can breach this PCT if it wins against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. However, this result will see India progressing to the WTC final.

If India win 3-1: In this scenario, India will finish with 138 points and a PCT of 60.52. Australia will once again not be able to go past this point percentage. In this scenario as well, India will progress to the WTC final.

If India draw BGT 2-2:  In such a case, India will end the WTC cycle with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01. Australia can breach this figure if they win the two Tests against Sri Lanka. If Australia win 2-0 against Sri Lanka, then India will be knocked out.

Updated WTC standings 

Australia (PCT 60.71)

South Africa (PCT 59.26)

India (PCT 57.29)

Sri Lanka (PCT 50.00)

England (PCT 45.24)

New Zealand (PCT 44.23)

Pakistan (PCT 33.33)

Bangladesh (PCT 31.25)

West Indies (PCT 24.24)

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